Does Obama’s age bring luck in his quest for the White House in November? Abdul Quader
It is obvious that the US presidential lections in November generate tremendous interest among many people all over the world because the results have implications for many interest groups both in the US as well as in other jurisdictions beyond the US. This year it is more so as the world financial crisis turning into an economic crisis that affects every nation on the globe, as we imagine. The financial mess started in the US has spread to many other countries in Europe, Asia and Latin America. Australia is not immune to the effects of this financial and economic mayhem of biblical proportions. It is said “if the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold”. Such is the influence of the US financial and economic might.
Now the pertinent question. Who will win the elections? All the indications point to a victory for Barrack Obama in the US presidential elections on November 4, 2008. The latest Gallup poll suggests an eight point lead by Senator Obama over his rival John McCain. According to a number of forecast models developed by political scientists also predict a victory for Senator Barack Obama. These forecasts have been published in the October issue of the journal Political Science and Politics published by the American Political Science Association. These forecasts are complex in nature taking into account different statistical and historical data. As reported in the media, other forecasts also give Senator Obama an advantage over Senator McCain in terms of the probability of who will win the elections.
There are so many factors that are involved in the kind of US presidential elections. These include the domestic and foreign policies each candidate stands for, their characters, standing in the society for their past and present beliefs, behaviours and actions, the credibility and trust perceived by the voters about the candidates and what not. For example, domestic policies such as taxation, health, education and community welfare are common issues on which candidates argue to prove their policies would result in “greatest good for the greatest number”.
Americans are generally obsessed with their superior military might and often create immense problems for other countries in the name of bringing democracy and freedom to these countries. Iraq is a case in point in this regard as we all understand. So foreign policy issues dominate the election agenda as usual. As an example, voters take special interest in how each candidate proposes to get America out of the foreign policy mess created by president George W. Bush.
The choice of the vice-president as the running mate also plays a role in the overall probability of a candidate’s success in the elections. Above all, who will make the job done as the president is the ultimate determinant in the race for the White House.
In terms of electoral systems, the results of the American presidential elections are basically determined by what is known as the Electoral College. The Electoral College system allocates each state a number of votes according to its population. States with lower population have lesser number of votes compared with states with higher populations. For example, California, Texas and New York are large states in terms of population. California has 55 Electoral College votes, with Texas and New York 31 and 34 respectively.
The electoral votes go to the winner of the popular votes. The candidate who gets
270 electoral votes wins the elections. Historically, California and New York are strongholds for the Democrats while Texas has mainly voted for the Republicans in recent times. However, there are so-called “swing states” which have the potential to decide the election results. These states include Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This makes both candidates Obama and McCain to focus especially on winning votes in swing states.
Apart from the traditional supporters of each party, candidates try to win votes from the rival’s constituencies. It has been reported that independent whites and the Jewish groups, especially the younger generations, are leaning towards Senator Obama in this year’s elections. Perhaps this trend provides a bonus point for Obama.
Now does the term “luck” have anything to do with the prospective win of Senator Obama in this year’s US presidential elections? Let us see how this might work for Obama. Both Obama and McCain are lucky in that the number 7 is associated with their age (Obama is 47 and McCain is 72). This is why they both got nominations for the presidency by their respective parties? However, Obama scores higher in overall luck. He scores 28 (4×7) while McCain scores only 14 (7×2). In addition, elections will be held on November 4. This number 4 also goes in favor of Obama as he got the number 4 connected with his age of 47. Therefore, the winner is………… Senator Obama! Is it a funny prediction?
